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As for the "maybe it's autism" theory: besides the fact that being trans *isn't* actually caused by a perceived need to conform to rigid gender roles anyway, there's also the fact that autism isn't only associated with differences in gender identity. It's also associated with differences in sexual orientation (e.g. onlinelibrary.wiley.com…
As for the "maybe it's autism" theory: besides the fact that being trans *isn't* actually caused by a perceived need to conform to rigid gender roles anyway, there's also the fact that autism isn't only associated with differences in gender identity. It's also associated with differences in sexual orientation (e.g. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aur.1892): a trait which, like gender identity, is linked to sex differentiation in the developing brain.
If intolerance for social ambiguity and a resulting need to conform to stereotypes were the cause of the gender identity correlation with autism, wouldn't we expect to also see more conformity in sexual orientation (i.e. heterosexuality), not less?
I think a more plausible explanation is that autism, a developmental condition affecting the brain and especially affecting traits that tend to be sex-specific, shares a common cause with other developmental conditions affecting other sex-specific aspects of brain development.