Has there been any research into the voting habits of ex-cons. As mentioned above, felons are disproportionately black, but there are about 4-5x times as many white people as black people in the US so there would be as large a population of white ex-con voters. On demographics, these lower income white voters would likely vote republican. If republicans were not tough on crime, there would be incentive to restore their right to vote. Has anyone looked into how ex-cons actually vote?
There have been multiple studies, but it's difficult to get a clear picture because every state is different and there are a host of confounding variables.
Elsewhere however, a common problem is that it is very difficult for felons to know exactly their right to vote is restored, so many of them don't bother trying even if they are legally allowed to. If you asked me right now to answer without looking up whether felons can vote in my state, I literally have no idea whether they regain their right upon release or after a judge restores it, and I'm a public defender who has processed hundreds of guilty pleas! All I know is that felony convictions take away your right to vote, and you get it back "someday".
Besides the lack of knowledge, felons face higher hardships (finding housing, finding employment, not committing more crimes, etc) than the general population, and their appetite for voting is a fairly low priority. You can see why something as heavily publicized as a referendum on a constitutional amendment for voting right restoration would draw a lot of attention and get people with convictions coming out of the woodwork to register. In a state that is as purple as Florida and with razor-sharp electoral margins, this is bound to be a catastrophic risk that just isn't worth it for the party that expects the short-end of the stick.
Has there been any research into the voting habits of ex-cons. As mentioned above, felons are disproportionately black, but there are about 4-5x times as many white people as black people in the US so there would be as large a population of white ex-con voters. On demographics, these lower income white voters would likely vote republican. If republicans were not tough on crime, there would be incentive to restore their right to vote. Has anyone looked into how ex-cons actually vote?
There have been multiple studies, but it's difficult to get a clear picture because every state is different and there are a host of confounding variables.
It's relatively straightforward to get a good perspective from Vermont and Maine, because those are the only states that allow people *currently incarcerated* to vote from prison. The Marshall Project surveyed that population and did not find that they leaned heavily Democratic: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/03/11/what-do-we-really-know-about-the-politics-of-people-behind-bars
Elsewhere however, a common problem is that it is very difficult for felons to know exactly their right to vote is restored, so many of them don't bother trying even if they are legally allowed to. If you asked me right now to answer without looking up whether felons can vote in my state, I literally have no idea whether they regain their right upon release or after a judge restores it, and I'm a public defender who has processed hundreds of guilty pleas! All I know is that felony convictions take away your right to vote, and you get it back "someday".
Besides the lack of knowledge, felons face higher hardships (finding housing, finding employment, not committing more crimes, etc) than the general population, and their appetite for voting is a fairly low priority. You can see why something as heavily publicized as a referendum on a constitutional amendment for voting right restoration would draw a lot of attention and get people with convictions coming out of the woodwork to register. In a state that is as purple as Florida and with razor-sharp electoral margins, this is bound to be a catastrophic risk that just isn't worth it for the party that expects the short-end of the stick.
Thanks for the link!
For that matter, has anyone looked into how *many* ex-cons actually vote, and how often?